· Referee B. Verbeke · Analysis updated 06:00 UTC
Côte d'Ivoire U20 vs Canada U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.52 expected goals for Côte d'Ivoire U20 and 1.06 for Canada U20, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Côte d'Ivoire U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Côte d'Ivoire U20 win
69.0% probability
Expected goals
2.52 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Côte d'Ivoire U20 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Canada U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Côte d'Ivoire U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.52 goals for Côte d'Ivoire U20 and 1.06 for Canada U20, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–17.4%
- 3–07.4%
Recent form
Côte d'Ivoire U20
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Niger U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Congo DR U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Canada U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Portugal U20 · 0-0 (D)
Canada U20
- 2026-08-08T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-30T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Honduras U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Panama U20 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-08T13:00:00.000Z · Côte d'Ivoire U20 2-1 Canada U20 (Tournoi Maurice Revello)
Tournoi Maurice Revello table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Côte d'Ivoire U20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Tunisia U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Congo DR U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Japan U20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | China PR U20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | Canada U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | Colombia U19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Venezuela U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Côte d'Ivoire U20 win, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.