Coventry vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Coventry and 1.14 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Coventry the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Coventry win

53.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Coventry win53%

Draw23%

Arsenal win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.8%
1–09.4%
2–08.6%
1–26.2%

Why the model likes this

Coventry home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coventry to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Coventry and 1.14 for Arsenal, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Coventry

2026-08-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Northampton · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 4-0 (W)
2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 3-1 (W)

Arsenal

2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2014-01-24T19:45:00.000Z · Coventry 0-4 Arsenal (FA Cup)
2012-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · Coventry 1-6 Arsenal (League Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.