Coventry Building Society Arena · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Coventry vs Everton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Coventry and 1.46 for Everton, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Everton win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Coventry home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Everton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 25% / 27% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Coventry and 1.46 for Everton, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Coventry
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 0-1 (L)
Everton
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Everton win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.