Coventry vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Coventry and 0.95 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Coventry the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Coventry win

61.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Coventry win62%

Draw21%

Newcastle win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.5%
2–010.5%
1–110.0%
2–19.9%
3–07.0%

Why the model likes this

Coventry home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coventry to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Coventry and 0.95 for Newcastle, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Coventry

2026-08-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Northampton · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-02T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 4-0 (W)
2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 3-1 (W)

Newcastle

2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.