Coventry vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Coventry and 1.65 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Coventry the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Coventry home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Coventry win41%

Draw23%

Sunderland win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–18.4%
1–28.0%
2–27.0%
1–05.8%

Recent form

Coventry

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)

Sunderland

2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-05-13T19:00:00.000Z · Coventry 1-1 Sunderland (Championship)
2025-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · Coventry 1-2 Sunderland (Championship)
2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Coventry 3-0 Sunderland (Championship)
2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Coventry 2-2 Sunderland (Championship)
2023-12-23T15:00:00.000Z · Coventry 3-0 Sunderland (Championship)
2023-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Coventry 0-0 Sunderland (Championship)
2023-02-25T12:30:00.000Z · Coventry 2-1 Sunderland (Championship)
2022-07-31T11:00:00.000Z · Coventry 1-1 Sunderland (Championship)
2020-03-01T12:00:00.000Z · Coventry 1-0 Sunderland (League One)
2019-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Coventry 1-1 Sunderland (League One)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.