· Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
Cowdenbeath vs East Stirlingshire Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cowdenbeath and 1.93 for East Stirlingshire, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives East Stirlingshire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cowdenbeath home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
East Stirlingshire away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Cowdenbeath
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hamilton Academical · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochee United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs East Stirlingshire · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hill Of Beath Hawthorn · 0-2 (L)
East Stirlingshire
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Civil Service Strollers · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bonnyton Thistle · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Broxburn Athletic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bo'ness United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cowdenbeath · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Cowdenbeath 4-1 East Stirlingshire (Football League - Lowland League)
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Cowdenbeath 1-4 East Stirlingshire (Football League - Lowland League)
- 2025-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Cowdenbeath 1-3 East Stirlingshire (Football League - Lowland League)
- 2024-12-28T15:00:00.000Z · Cowdenbeath 3-0 East Stirlingshire (Football League - Lowland League)
- 2024-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · Cowdenbeath 1-2 East Stirlingshire (Football League - Lowland League)
- 2023-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Cowdenbeath 3-2 East Stirlingshire (Football League - Lowland League)
- 2023-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · Cowdenbeath 0-0 East Stirlingshire (Football League - Lowland League)
- 2022-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · Cowdenbeath 5-0 East Stirlingshire (Football League - Lowland League)
Football League - Lowland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilwinning Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 30 |
| 2 | Pollok | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Tranent Juniors | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Linlithgow Rose | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 25 |
| 5 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
| 6 | Broxburn Athletic | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Clydebank | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 8 | Largs Thistle | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 9 | Auchinleck Talbot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 22 |
| 10 | Caledonian Braves | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 11 | Brechin | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 12 | Lochee United | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 |
| 13 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 19 |
| 14 | Johnstone Burgh | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 15 | Celtic II | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
| 16 | Cumnock Juniors | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 17 | Civil Service Strollers | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 18 | Bo'ness United | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 | Troon FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 20 | Cumbernauld Colts | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 21 | East Stirlingshire | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 22 | Gretna 2008 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 11 |
| 23 | Cowdenbeath | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 24 | Musselburgh Athletic | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 25 | Renfrew | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 26 | Beith | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 9 |
| 27 | Albion Rovers | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 8 |
| 28 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 29 | Berwick Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
| 30 | Dunipace | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 31 | Newton Stewart | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -31 | 4 |
| 32 | Stirling University | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -17 | 3 |
| 33 | Dalbeattie Star | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -33 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.