· Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
CRAC vs ABECAT Ouvidorense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for CRAC and 0.40 for ABECAT Ouvidorense, a combined total of 1.15. That distribution gives CRAC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 42%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 11% for over 2.5 goals and 17% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 32%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
82.1% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CRAC home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 40% / 42% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for CRAC and 0.40 for ABECAT Ouvidorense, a combined 1.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 11% and both teams to score at 17%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 32%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
58%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–031.7%
- 1–023.7%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
CRAC
- 2026-07-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Treze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Treze · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tombense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tombense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ivinhema · 1-1 (D)
ABECAT Ouvidorense
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 82.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 17% and over 2.5 goals at 11%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.