· Analysis updated 04:20 UTC
Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.58 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Cracovia Krakow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cracovia Krakow home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nieciecza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cracovia Krakow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.58 for Nieciecza, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Cracovia Krakow
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 1-2 (L)
Nieciecza
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.