Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium · Referee Paweł Raczkowski, Poland · Analysis updated 21:35 UTC
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.33 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Cracovia Krakow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cracovia Krakow win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cracovia Krakow home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Raków Częstochowa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cracovia Krakow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.33 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Cracovia Krakow
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Plock · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Znicz Pruszków · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 1-2 (L)
Raków Częstochowa
- 2026-10-24T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Krakow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wieczysta Kraków | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cracovia Krakow win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.