Estádio Juvenal Melo · Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
Crateús vs Esporte Limoeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Crateús and 0.63 for Esporte Limoeiro, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Crateús the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crateús win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crateús home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Esporte Limoeiro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crateús to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 31% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Crateús and 0.63 for Esporte Limoeiro, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.3%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–110.1%
Recent form
Crateús
- 2026-05-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Icasa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cariri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany de Sobral · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 2-0 (W)
Esporte Limoeiro
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Acopiara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Calouros do Ar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmacia · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-07-27T18:30:00.000Z · Crateús 2-0 Esporte Limoeiro (Cearense - 3)
- 2025-07-06T18:30:00.000Z · Crateús 2-1 Esporte Limoeiro (Cearense - 3)
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crateús win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.