· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Crateús vs Guarany de Sobral Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Crateús and 0.82 for Guarany de Sobral, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Crateús the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crateús win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crateús home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guarany de Sobral away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crateús to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 29% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Crateús and 0.82 for Guarany de Sobral, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–09.9%
Recent form
Crateús
- 2026-05-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Icasa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cariri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany de Sobral · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 2-0 (W)
Guarany de Sobral
- 2026-05-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crato · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Icasa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Crato | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cariri | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Barbalha | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Guarani De Juazeiro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 1 | Itapipoca | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Crateús | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Guarany de Sobral | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Caucaia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | Uniclinic Atletico Clube | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crateús win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.