· Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
Crateús vs Itapipoca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Crateús and 0.78 for Itapipoca, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Crateús the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crateús win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crateús home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Itapipoca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crateús to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 27% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Crateús and 0.78 for Itapipoca, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Crateús
- 2026-05-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Icasa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cariri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany de Sobral · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Uniclinic Atletico Clube · 2-0 (W)
Itapipoca
- 2026-06-14T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Icasa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crato · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Crato · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarany de Sobral · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Icasa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Crato | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cariri | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Barbalha | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Guarani De Juazeiro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 1 | Itapipoca | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Crateús | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Guarany de Sobral | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Caucaia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | Uniclinic Atletico Clube | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crateús win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.