· Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Crato vs Guarani De Juazeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Crato and 0.60 for Guarani De Juazeiro, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Crato the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crato win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crato home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guarani De Juazeiro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.3%
- 0–014.3%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–18.5%
Recent form
Crato
- 2026-05-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Itapipoca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany de Sobral · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Icasa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cariri · 1-0 (W)
Guarani De Juazeiro
- 2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Caucaia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Icasa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barbalha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Crato · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cariri · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T19:00:00.000Z · Crato 1-1 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2026-03-22T19:00:00.000Z · Crato 1-0 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2025-03-05T22:00:00.000Z · Crato 1-3 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2025-02-09T18:30:00.000Z · Crato 1-2 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
- 2020-11-18T18:30:00.000Z · Crato 1-1 Guarani De Juazeiro (Cearense - 2)
Cearense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Icasa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Crato | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cariri | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Barbalha | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 5 | Guarani De Juazeiro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 1 | Itapipoca | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Crateús | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Guarany de Sobral | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Caucaia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | Uniclinic Atletico Clube | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crato win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.