Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.55 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Shrewsbury the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Shrewsbury win

49.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Crawley Town home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shrewsbury away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shrewsbury to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 25% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Crawley Town and 1.55 for Shrewsbury, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Crawley Town win25%

Draw26%

Shrewsbury win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–111.8%
1–29.4%
0–29.1%
1–07.8%

Recent form

Crawley Town

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chesterfield · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bromley · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Milton Keynes Dons · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 1-3 (L)

Shrewsbury

2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crewe · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shrewsbury win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.