· Analysis updated 06:45 UTC
Cray Wanderers vs Welling United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Cray Wanderers and 1.67 for Welling United, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Cray Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cray Wanderers home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Welling United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Cray Wanderers
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Maldon & Tiptree · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheshunt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Maidstone Utd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidstone Utd · 1-1 (D)
Welling United
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Maldon & Tiptree · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whyteleafe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertsey Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dulwich Hamlet · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cheshunt · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Cray Wanderers 4-1 Welling United (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Cray Wanderers 2-3 Welling United (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2025-11-15T15:03:00.000Z · Cray Wanderers 2-0 Welling United (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2023-07-08T14:00:00.000Z · Cray Wanderers 2-1 Welling United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-05T18:45:00.000Z · Cray Wanderers 0-2 Welling United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-08-03T18:45:00.000Z · Cray Wanderers 2-2 Welling United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2012-11-11T15:00:00.000Z · Cray Wanderers 0-1 Welling United (FA Trophy)
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Dartford | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Dulwich Hamlet | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 14 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 7 |
| 22 | Whitehawk | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.