Stadio Giovanni Zini · Referee Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni, Italy · Analysis updated 21:31 UTC
Cremonese vs Virtus Entella Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.29 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Virtus Entella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cremonese home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Virtus Entella away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Virtus Entella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Cremonese and 1.29 for Virtus Entella, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Cremonese
- 2026-10-02T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Monza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Entella · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Cesena · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 3-1 (W)
Virtus Entella
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vicenza Virtus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Cesena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Sudtirol | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Mantova | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Ascoli | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Modena | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Padova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Benevento | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Cesena | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Pisa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 13 | Empoli | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Catanzaro | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 19 | Juve Stabia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Carrarese | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.