· Analysis updated 20:22 UTC
Criciuma U20 vs Cascavel U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Criciuma U20 and 1.60 for Cascavel U20, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Criciuma U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Criciuma U20 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cascavel U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Criciuma U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Criciuma U20 and 1.60 for Cascavel U20, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Criciuma U20
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cascavel U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barra SC U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra SC U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense U20 · 2-2 (D)
Cascavel U20
- 2026-06-09T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Araucaria U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Araucaria U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Galo Maringá U20 · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Galo Maringá U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cianorte U20 · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.