Estadio Heriberto Hülse · Referee Paulo Schleich Vollkopf, Brazil · Analysis updated 07:27 UTC
Criciuma vs America Mineiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Criciuma and 0.57 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Criciuma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Criciuma win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Criciuma home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
America Mineiro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 2–015.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–08.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 64.3% vs market 55.7%, edge +8.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 64.3% | 1.56 | +8.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.5% | 88.2% | 1.13 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 65.1% | 65.6% | 1.52 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.6% | 4.42 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.5% | 77.3% | 1.29 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 7.50 | 12.1% | 11.7% | 8.55 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 35.0% | 34.3% | 2.92 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 35.7% | 2.80 | -8.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Criciuma
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avai · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Goianiense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 2-0 (W)
America Mineiro
- 2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Goianiense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Vila Nova · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-23T23:00:00.000Z · Criciuma 1-0 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2025-10-12T21:30:00.000Z · Criciuma 2-1 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2025-06-21T00:35:00.000Z · Criciuma 1-1 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2021-06-10T00:30:00.000Z · Criciuma 2-2 America Mineiro (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2021-06-03T00:30:00.000Z · Criciuma 0-0 America Mineiro (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2019-09-11T00:00:00.000Z · Criciuma 1-2 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2019-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Criciuma 0-0 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2017-08-23T00:30:00.000Z · Criciuma 0-0 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2017-05-26T22:15:00.000Z · Criciuma 1-3 America Mineiro (Serie B)
- 2015-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · Criciuma 1-2 America Mineiro (Serie B)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 64 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 62 |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 61 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 59 |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 55 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | -1 | 51 |
| 10 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 49 |
| 11 | São Bernardo | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 49 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 47 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 47 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | -12 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -7 | 32 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | -32 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | -55 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Criciuma win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.