Estadio Heriberto Hülse · Referee Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Criciuma vs Avai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Criciuma and 0.76 for Avai, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Criciuma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Criciuma win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Criciuma home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Avai away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Criciuma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 26% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Criciuma and 0.76 for Avai, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 58.2% vs market 51.5%, edge +6.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +6.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.5% | 74.3% | 1.35 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.4% | 5.43 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 44.1% | 44.1% | 2.27 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 56.0% | 55.9% | 1.79 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.4% | 81.6% | 1.23 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -6.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Criciuma
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avai · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Goianiense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 2-0 (W)
Avai
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vila Nova · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 61 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 60 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 60 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 57 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 56 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | -6 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -5 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -1 | 41 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -10 | 36 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | -33 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | -55 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Criciuma win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.