Brazil · Serie B · Matchweek 2421:30

0 – 2

Sunday, 23 August 2026

Estádio Heriberto Hülse · Referee Alex Gomes Stefano, Brazil · Analysis updated 13:25 UTC

Criciuma vs Fortaleza EC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Criciuma and 0.58 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 1.47. That distribution gives Criciuma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

77.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Criciuma home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortaleza EC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Criciuma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 36% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Criciuma and 0.58 for Fortaleza EC, a combined 1.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Criciuma win41%

Draw36%

Fortaleza EC win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

64%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals43%

Over 2.5 goals19%

Over 3.5 goals6%

Both teams to score26%

Correct score

0–022.9%
1–020.6%
0–113.2%
1–111.8%
2–09.3%

Recent form

Criciuma

2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avai · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-22T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Goianiense · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-04T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 2-0 (W)

Fortaleza EC

2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	15	61
2	Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	31	60
3	Juventude	33	17	9	7	18	60
4	Fortaleza EC	33	15	12	6	10	57
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	33	14	11	8	10	53
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	4	52
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	10	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	-6	48
10	Operario-PR	33	13	9	11	-1	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	12	10	11	10	46
13	Athletic Club	33	10	13	10	1	43
14	Nautico Recife	33	11	9	13	-3	42
15	Ceara	33	11	9	13	-5	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	-1	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	-10	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	-7	29
19	America Mineiro	33	4	5	24	-33	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	3	4	26	-55	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.