· Analysis updated 08:35 UTC
Cristo Atlético vs Atlético Tordesillas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cristo Atlético and 0.85 for Atlético Tordesillas, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Cristo Atlético the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cristo Atlético home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Tordesillas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cristo Atlético to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Cristo Atlético and 0.85 for Atlético Tordesillas, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
Cristo Atlético
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs La Virgen del Camino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bembibre · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 1-1 (D)
Atlético Tordesillas
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.