· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Cristo Atlético vs Bembibre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cristo Atlético and 0.85 for Bembibre, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Cristo Atlético the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cristo Atlético win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cristo Atlético home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bembibre away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.5%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–19.8%
Recent form
Cristo Atlético
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs La Virgen del Camino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Guijuelo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bembibre · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 1-1 (D)
Bembibre
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arandina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs La Virgen del Camino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guijuelo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mansillés · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 0-2 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2026-03-07T16:00:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 2-0 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-10-26T11:30:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 1-0 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-03-23T16:00:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 1-1 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-11-03T16:00:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 2-1 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-02-04T16:00:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 1-1 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 2-1 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2021-02-14T17:00:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 3-0 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2020-11-22T16:00:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 0-0 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2020-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · Cristo Atlético 2-1 Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cristo Atlético win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.