Romania · Cupa României · Semi-finals14:30

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Wednesday, 12 August 2026

· Analysis updated 13:14 UTC

Crişul Sântandrei vs Bihor Oradea Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Crişul Sântandrei and 1.49 for Bihor Oradea, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Bihor Oradea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.49

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

  • Crişul Sântandrei home form

    9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Bihor Oradea away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Bihor Oradea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.48 goals for Crişul Sântandrei and 1.49 for Bihor Oradea, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Crişul Sântandrei win38%
Draw24%
Bihor Oradea win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score60%

Correct score

  • 1–111.3%
  • 1–28.4%
  • 2–18.4%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 1–07.6%

Recent form

Crişul Sântandrei

  • 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SCM Zalău · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bihorul Beiuş · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sânmartin · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sănătatea Cluj · 0-2 (L)
  • 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Minaur Baia Mare · 1-0 (W)

Bihor Oradea

  • 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 2-3 (L)
  • 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · H vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti · 3-0 (W)
  • 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-3 (L)
  • 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Corona Braşov · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ştefăneşti · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.