· Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
Croatia Zmijavci vs Hrvace Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Croatia Zmijavci and 0.83 for Hrvace, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Croatia Zmijavci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Croatia Zmijavci win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Croatia Zmijavci home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hrvace away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Croatia Zmijavci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Croatia Zmijavci and 0.83 for Hrvace, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Croatia Zmijavci
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hrvace · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Siroki Brijeg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvace · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Opatija · 1-3 (L)
Hrvace
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Orijent 1919 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubrava Zagreb · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Opatija · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Dugopolje | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Karlovac 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Vukovar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Opatija | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Croatia Zmijavci win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.