· Analysis updated 19:17 UTC
Croatia Zmijavci vs Hrvace Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Croatia Zmijavci and 0.79 for Hrvace, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Croatia Zmijavci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Croatia Zmijavci win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Croatia Zmijavci home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hrvace away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Croatia Zmijavci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Croatia Zmijavci and 0.79 for Hrvace, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 1.60 | 55.8% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 42.0% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.10 | 17.5% | 18.3% | 5.46 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.60 | 56.2% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.2% | 75.2% | 1.33 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.05 | 43.8% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.09 | 82.8% | 81.7% | 1.22 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 26.7% | 24.8% | 4.03 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Croatia Zmijavci
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hrvace · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Siroki Brijeg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvace · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Opatija · 1-3 (L)
Hrvace
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sesvete · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kustosija · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Orijent 1919 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia Zmijavci | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Segesta Sisak | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Jadran LP | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Cibalia | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Orijent 1919 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Opatija | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Mladost Ždralovi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Karlovac 1919 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Kustosija | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Sesvete | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Dubrava Zagreb | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | Vukovar | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Dugopolje | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Hrvace | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Croatia Zmijavci win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.