Croix Football IC vs Vimy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Croix Football IC and 0.86 for Vimy, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Croix Football IC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Croix Football IC win

52.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Croix Football IC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Croix Football IC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Croix Football IC and 0.86 for Vimy, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Croix Football IC win53%

Draw26%

Vimy win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.0%
1–112.1%
2–010.7%
2–19.2%
0–09.2%

Recent form

Croix Football IC

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs OCPAM · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Balagne · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Neuilly sur Marne · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Drancy · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimy · 2-0 (W)

Vimy

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group E table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lille II	26	15	3	8	22	48
2	Croix Football IC	26	14	4	8	17	46
3	Le Pays du Valois	26	13	7	6	16	45
4	OCPAM	26	12	5	9	1	40
5	Vimy	26	11	6	9	5	39
6	Olympique St Quentin	26	10	7	9	2	37
7	Drancy	26	10	5	11	6	35
8	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	26	9	7	10	-4	34
9	Metz II	26	10	3	13	-5	33
10	Balagne	26	9	6	11	-1	33
11	Neuilly sur Marne	26	8	7	11	-12	31
12	Pays de Cassel	26	7	8	11	-15	29
13	Amiens SC II	26	8	5	13	-13	29
14	Reims II	26	5	9	12	-19	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Croix Football IC win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.