· Analysis updated 11:04 UTC
Crowborough Athletic vs Ashford United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Crowborough Athletic and 1.68 for Ashford United, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives Crowborough Athletic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crowborough Athletic win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crowborough Athletic home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ashford United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crowborough Athletic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Crowborough Athletic and 1.68 for Ashford United, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Crowborough Athletic
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wimborne Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hampton & Richmond · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hampton & Richmond · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whyteleafe · 1-1 (D)
Ashford United
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascot United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dartford · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidstone Utd · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hassocks · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crowborough Athletic win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.