· Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Croydon Athletic vs Sevenoaks Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Croydon Athletic and 2.14 for Sevenoaks Town, a combined total of 4.14. That distribution gives Sevenoaks Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.8% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Croydon Athletic home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sevenoaks Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevenoaks Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 37% / 20% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Croydon Athletic and 2.14 for Sevenoaks Town, a combined 4.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–35.2%
Recent form
Croydon Athletic
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Waltham Abbey · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raynes Park Vale · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevenoaks Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 2-5 (L)
Sevenoaks Town
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Croydon Athletic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Burgess Hill Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastbourne Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Faversham Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheppey United · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.