Regency Park · Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Croydon Kings vs Sturt Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Croydon Kings and 1.88 for Sturt Lions, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Croydon Kings the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Croydon Kings home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Croydon Kings to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Croydon Kings and 1.88 for Sturt Lions, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 73%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.9%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.1%
Recent form
Croydon Kings
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs MetroStars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs MetroStars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sturt Lions · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T07:30:00.000Z · A vs FK Beograd · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Campbelltown City · 2-2 (D)
Sturt Lions
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.