· Analysis updated 14:48 UTC
Cruz A. vs Clube 1992 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Cruz A. and 1.06 for Clube 1992, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Cruz A. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cruz A. win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruz A. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Cruz A. and 1.06 for Clube 1992, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 57% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Cruz A.
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Clube 1992 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São Paulo RS · 2-1 (W)
Clube 1992
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gaúcho - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panambi | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Real | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 13 |
| 3 | São Paulo RS | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Futebol Com Vida | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cruz A. | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | FBC Riograndense RS | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Farroupilha | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 8 | Clube 1992 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 9 | EC Novo Horizonte | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 3 |
| 10 | SC Rio Grande | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cruz A. win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.