· Analysis updated 06:03 UTC
Cruz Azul U21 vs Puebla U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cruz Azul U21 and 1.41 for Puebla U21, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Puebla U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cruz Azul U21 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puebla U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puebla U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Cruz Azul U21 and 1.41 for Puebla U21, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Cruz Azul U21
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juarez U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UNAM Pumas U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club America U21 · 1-2 (L)
Puebla U21
- 2026-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-16T22:45:00.000Z · A vs Club Tijuana U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Leon U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante U21 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Puebla U21 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 6 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 13 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 19 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.