Estadio Banorte · Referee Maximiliano Quintero Hernandez, Mexico · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Cruz Azul and 1.38 for Santos Laguna, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Cruz Azul the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cruz Azul win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cruz Azul home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santos Laguna away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.3%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Cruz Azul
- 2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 4-3 (W)
Santos Laguna
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 1-0 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2026-03-04T01:00:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 2-1 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2025-08-17T01:00:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 3-2 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-20T03:05:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 1-0 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2024-11-03T03:10:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 2-0 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2024-03-10T01:00:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 0-3 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2023-08-20T23:00:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 2-2 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2023-04-30T03:05:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 3-2 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2022-08-07T02:05:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 0-4 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
- 2022-02-28T01:00:00.000Z · Cruz Azul 1-2 Santos Laguna (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cruz Azul win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.