Cruz Azul vs Toluca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Cruz Azul and 1.78 for Toluca, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Toluca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Toluca win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cruz Azul home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 23% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.78 for Toluca, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 53%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Cruz Azul win21%

Draw23%

Toluca win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

0–111.1%
1–111.1%
0–29.8%
1–29.8%
0–06.2%

Recent form

Cruz Azul

2026-10-02T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · H vs Toluca · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 4-3 (W)

Toluca

2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Club America	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	10	20
3	Club Queretaro	10	6	2	2	7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	7	19
5	Leon	11	5	3	3	3	18
6	Atlas	11	5	3	3	-1	18
7	Cruz Azul	11	5	2	4	1	17
8	Club Tijuana	10	4	3	3	1	15
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	2	14
11	CF Pachuca	11	3	4	4	4	13
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	11	3	4	4	-2	13
13	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	-2	13
14	Santos Laguna	11	4	1	6	-4	13
15	Atletico San Luis	11	3	3	5	-5	12
16	Atlante FC	11	2	5	4	-5	11
17	Necaxa	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	FC Juarez	11	1	1	9	-18	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Toluca win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.