· Analysis updated 21:01 UTC
Cruzeiro U20 vs Guanabara City U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Cruzeiro U20 and 1.14 for Guanabara City U20, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Cruzeiro U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cruzeiro U20 win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cruzeiro U20 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guanabara City U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cruzeiro U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Cruzeiro U20 and 1.14 for Guanabara City U20, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Cruzeiro U20
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club MG U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club MG U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Coimbra U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guanabara City U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston City U20 · 3-2 (W)
Guanabara City U20
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pontalinense U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Goiania U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerrado EC U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Inhumas U20 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · Cruzeiro U20 3-1 Guanabara City U20 (Copa do Brasil U20)
- 2026-01-18T21:30:00.000Z · Cruzeiro U20 3-0 Guanabara City U20 (São Paulo Youth Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cruzeiro U20 win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.