VBS Community Stadium · Referee E. Swallow · Analysis updated 13:07 UTC
Crystal Palace U21 vs Arsenal U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Crystal Palace U21 and 1.38 for Arsenal U21, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Crystal Palace U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crystal Palace U21 win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crystal Palace U21 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Crystal Palace U21
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint-Germain U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa U21 · 2-0 (W)
Arsenal U21
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham City U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leyton Orient · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton U21 · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace U21 1-1 Arsenal U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2026-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace U21 2-0 Arsenal U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2025-03-03T19:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace U21 2-2 Arsenal U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2023-03-17T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace U21 2-0 Arsenal U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2022-10-31T19:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace U21 1-1 Arsenal U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
Premier League 2 Division One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Norwich City U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Fulham U21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Reading U21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Manchester United U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 12 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Brighton U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | West Ham United U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Derby County U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 18 | Leeds United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Manchester City U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 20 | Ipswich Town U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 21 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Stoke City U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | Leicester City U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 24 | Arsenal U21 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 25 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Burnley U21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | Wolves U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 28 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 29 | Birmingham City U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -11 | 2 |
| 30 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crystal Palace U21 win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.