VBS Community Stadium · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Crystal Palace U21 vs Paris Saint-Germain U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Crystal Palace U21 and 1.27 for Paris Saint-Germain U21, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Crystal Palace U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crystal Palace U21 win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crystal Palace U21 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crystal Palace U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Crystal Palace U21 and 1.27 for Paris Saint-Germain U21, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 63%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Crystal Palace U21
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint-Germain U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa U21 · 2-0 (W)
Paris Saint-Germain U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League International Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Brondby U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Sporting CP B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | West Ham United U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Brighton U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Milan II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Genk U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Jong PSV U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Sunderland U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Everton U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Juventus U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Paris Saint-Germain U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | Stoke City U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Valencia U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Fulham U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 | Leicester City U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crystal Palace U21 win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.