Crystal Palace vs Hull City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 2.05 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Hull City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Hull City win

57.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 2.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Crystal Palace home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hull City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win22%

Draw21%

Hull City win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–29.8%
1–19.5%
0–28.1%
0–17.9%
1–36.7%

Recent form

Crystal Palace

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)

Hull City

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2017-05-14T11:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 4-0 Hull City (Premier League)
2016-12-10T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 3-3 Hull City (Premier League)
2015-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-2 Hull City (Premier League)
2014-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-2 Hull City (Premier League)
2014-01-28T20:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-0 Hull City (Premier League)
2013-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-0 Hull City (Premier League)
2013-03-05T20:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 4-2 Hull City (Championship)
2012-11-27T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Hull City (Championship)
2012-03-17T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Hull City (Championship)
2011-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-0 Hull City (Championship)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hull City win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.