Selhurst Park · Referee Michal Ocenas · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.77 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Crystal Palace the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Crystal Palace win
69.7% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crystal Palace home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lech Poznan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crystal Palace to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Crystal Palace and 0.77 for Lech Poznan, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 52.4% vs market 45.2%, edge +7.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 45.2% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +7.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.20 | 29.9% | 30.4% | 3.29 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 8.00 | 11.6% | 11.9% | 8.40 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.33 | 69.8% | 69.7% | 1.43 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.6% | 18.5% | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.7% | 81.6% | 1.23 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 88.5% | 88.2% | 1.13 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.8% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -7.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Crystal Palace
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)
Lech Poznan
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomiak Radom · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznan (UEFA Europa League)
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Crystal Palace win, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.