Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.45 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Crystal Palace the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.

Model pick

Crystal Palace to Win

47.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win47%

Draw23%

Liverpool win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–19.2%
1–27.1%
1–06.8%
2–26.6%

Why the model likes this

Crystal Palace home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crystal Palace to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.45 for Liverpool, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Crystal Palace

2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 0-3 (L)

Liverpool

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool (Premier League)
2025-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 3-0 Liverpool (League Cup)
2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
2025-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-2 Liverpool (Community Shield)
2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
2024-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
2024-04-14T13:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
2023-12-09T12:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
2023-02-25T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
2022-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.