Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.46 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Liverpool or Draw

67.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.46

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win33%

Draw26%

Liverpool win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.1%
0–19.6%
1–28.9%
1–08.3%
2–17.6%

Why the model likes this

Crystal Palace home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.46 for Liverpool, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Crystal Palace

2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 0-3 (L)

Liverpool

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool (Premier League)
2025-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 3-0 Liverpool (League Cup)
2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
2025-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-2 Liverpool (Community Shield)
2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
2024-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
2024-04-14T13:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
2023-12-09T12:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
2023-02-25T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
2022-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.