Selhurst Park · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.85 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Liverpool win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crystal Palace home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Liverpool away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Crystal Palace
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)
Liverpool
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2025-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 3-0 Liverpool (League Cup)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2025-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-2 Liverpool (Community Shield)
- 2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2024-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2024-04-14T13:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2023-12-09T12:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2023-02-25T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 2022-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Liverpool win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.