Selhurst Park · Referee Andy Madley, England · Analysis updated 00:09 UTC
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 2.74 for Manchester City, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Manchester City win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 2.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Crystal Palace home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manchester City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 15% / 16% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Crystal Palace and 2.74 for Manchester City, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–36.6%
- 1–16.4%
Recent form
Crystal Palace
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lyon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
Manchester City
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Athens FC · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manchester City win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.