Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.26 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Crystal Palace the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Crystal Palace win

47.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win47%

Draw24%

Newcastle win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.4%
1–08.9%
2–07.5%
1–27.1%

Why the model likes this

Crystal Palace home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Crystal Palace

2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Ula · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 0-3 (L)

Newcastle

2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2026-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
2025-04-16T18:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-5 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-04-24T19:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-4 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-01-21T17:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2022-11-09T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle (League Cup)
2022-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2022-04-20T18:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-1 Newcastle (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.