Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.90 for Newcastle, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Crystal Palace the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Crystal Palace win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Crystal Palace home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win45%

Draw20%

Newcastle win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–17.6%
2–27.3%
1–17.0%
1–26.7%
3–15.5%

Recent form

Crystal Palace

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)

Newcastle

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2026-01-04T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle (Premier League)
2025-04-16T18:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-5 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League)
2024-04-24T19:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 2-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-4 Newcastle (Premier League)
2023-01-21T17:30:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2022-11-09T19:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle (League Cup)
2022-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
2022-04-20T18:45:00.000Z · Crystal Palace 0-1 Newcastle (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Crystal Palace win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.