Crystal Palace W vs Charlton Athletic W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.59 expected goals for Crystal Palace W and 0.78 for Charlton Athletic W, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Crystal Palace W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Crystal Palace W win

76.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.59 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Crystal Palace W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Crystal Palace W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.59 goals for Crystal Palace W and 0.78 for Charlton Athletic W, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 50%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Crystal Palace W win76%

Draw15%

Charlton Athletic W win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

2–011.5%
3–09.9%
2–19.0%
1–08.9%
3–17.8%

Recent form

Crystal Palace W

2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea W · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton W · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlton Athletic W · 3-0 (W)

Charlton Athletic W

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

WSL Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester United W	2	2	0	0	13	6
2	Aston Villa W	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Crystal Palace W	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Liverpool W	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	London City Lionesses W	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	West Ham W	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Tottenham Hotspur W	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Brighton W	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Everton W	1	1	0	0	2	3
10	Burnley W	1	1	0	0	1	3
11	Sunderland W	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Wolverhampton W	1	0	1	0	0	1
13	Bristol City W	1	0	1	0	0	1
14	Ipswich Town W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Watford W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Leicester City FC W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Southampton W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Nottingham Forest W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Sheffield United W	2	0	1	1	-9	1
20	Birmingham City W	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Newcastle United W	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Durham W	2	0	0	2	-5	0
23	Charlton Athletic W	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Crystal Palace W win, at 76.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.