· Referee K. Herrera · Analysis updated 16:28 UTC
CS Cartagines vs Inter San Carlos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for CS Cartagines and 1.01 for Inter San Carlos, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives CS Cartagines the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CS Cartagines win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Inter San Carlos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CS Cartagines to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for CS Cartagines and 1.01 for Inter San Carlos, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 55%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–09.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
CS Cartagines
Inter San Carlos
- 2026-09-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs LD Alajuelense · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Puntarenas FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Escorpiones Belén · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting San Jose · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Saprissa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CS Cartagines win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.