Estadio Carlos Alvarado · Referee B. Cruz · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
CS Herediano vs LD Alajuelense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for CS Herediano and 1.25 for LD Alajuelense, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives LD Alajuelense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CS Herediano home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
LD Alajuelense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LD Alajuelense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for CS Herediano and 1.25 for LD Alajuelense, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
CS Herediano
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Cartagines · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T02:00:00.000Z · A vs LD Alajuelense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · H vs San Carlos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Saprissa · 0-2 (L)
LD Alajuelense
- 2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Cartagines · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T01:06:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Saprissa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Amador · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Puntarenas FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 7 | Inter San Carlos | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 18 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.