· Analysis updated 04:56 UTC
CS Manika vs TP Mazembe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for CS Manika and 0.97 for TP Mazembe, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives TP Mazembe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
77.2% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CS Manika home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TP Mazembe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 23% / 35% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for CS Manika and 0.97 for TP Mazembe, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 22% and both teams to score at 29%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.2%
- 0–119.7%
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–29.6%
Recent form
CS Manika
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanga Balende · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Blessing · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint Eloi Lupopo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Luc · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tshikas · 1-1 (D)
TP Mazembe
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Africain · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Medeama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Medeama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Céleste · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Don Bosco · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | Anges Verts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanganyika | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Étoile du Congo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Don Bosco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | JSK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Malole | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Céleste | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Saint Eloi Lupopo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | FC Mk de Kinshasa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Sanga Balende | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Dauphins Noirs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | AS New Soger | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | CS Manika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Etoile de Kivu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | TP Mazembe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | FC Renaissance | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lubumbashi Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | New Jack | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Butras | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Vita Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Blessing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Maniema Union | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Saint-Luc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Novakin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 77.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.