· Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for CS Sfaxien and 1.35 for ES Zarzis, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives ES Zarzis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CS Sfaxien home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ES Zarzis away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ES Zarzis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for CS Sfaxien and 1.35 for ES Zarzis, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
CS Sfaxien
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Bizertin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Shooting Stars · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shooting Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Zarzis · 2-1 (W)
ES Zarzis
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Réal Bamako · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Réal Bamako · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.