· Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
CS Sfaxien vs ES Zarzis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for CS Sfaxien and 0.56 for ES Zarzis, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives CS Sfaxien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CS Sfaxien win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.56
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CS Sfaxien home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ES Zarzis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CS Sfaxien to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 31% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for CS Sfaxien and 0.56 for ES Zarzis, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.7%
- 0–017.4%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.44 (model 70.2% vs market 63.5%, edge +6.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.44 | 63.5% | 70.2% | 1.42 | +6.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.3% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.7% | 31.0% | 3.23 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 51.5% | 51.5% | 1.94 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.8% | 17.4% | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 83.0% | 82.5% | 1.21 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.6% | 68.9% | 1.45 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.50 | 36.5% | 29.8% | 3.36 | -6.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
CS Sfaxien
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Bizertin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Shooting Stars · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shooting Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Zarzis · 2-1 (W)
ES Zarzis
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Diambars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Diambars · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Sfaxien · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Monastir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Bizertin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CS Sfaxien win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.