· Analysis updated 15:15 UTC
CS Sfaxien vs Stade Gabesien Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for CS Sfaxien and 1.75 for Stade Gabesien, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Stade Gabesien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Gabesien win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CS Sfaxien home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Gabesien away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
CS Sfaxien
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CA Bizertin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Shooting Stars · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shooting Stars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Zarzis · 2-1 (W)
Stade Gabesien
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Sfaxien · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Djelma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-20T14:30:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 2-1 Stade Gabesien (Cup)
- 2019-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 3-1 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
- 2018-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 1-0 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
- 2018-01-31T13:00:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 0-0 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
- 2017-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 3-1 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
- 2016-02-17T13:00:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 2-0 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
- 2015-09-17T14:30:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 2-1 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
- 2015-03-04T13:00:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 1-0 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
- 2014-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 0-1 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
- 2014-02-25T13:00:00.000Z · CS Sfaxien 0-0 Stade Gabesien (Ligue 1)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Gabesien win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.